Spending

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Should we change government spending?

Quick estimate

Quick opinion

The situation

In FY2025, the federal government is projected to spend about $7.0 trillion — roughly 24% of GDP. (That's narrower than the ~37%-of-GDP figure in the international comparison below, which also counts state and local government spending.)

About two-thirds of the federal budget — mostly Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the debt — is spent automatically each year without a new vote. The rest is discretionary spending that Congress sets annually, roughly half of which goes to defense.

Mandatory spending & interest
  • Social Security$1,550B
  • Medicare$950B
  • Net interest on the debt$950B
  • Medicaid$620B
  • Veterans benefits$325B
  • SNAP (food assistance)$100B
  • TANF (cash welfare)$17B
  • Other mandatory$640B
Discretionary spending
  • Defense$895B
  • Other discretionary$950B

Figures are rounded, illustrative FY2025 estimates and won't sum exactly to the total.

Pros and cons

Increase spending
Meets rising needs

An aging population is driving up Social Security and Medicare costs, and there's a backlog of investment needed in infrastructure, education, and climate resilience.

Cushions downturns

Spending on unemployment insurance and other safety-net programs automatically expands during recessions, softening the blow for families and the broader economy.

Room compared to peers

The US spends less than most other wealthy democracies as a share of GDP, suggesting room to expand public services without becoming a global outlier.

Reduce spending
Deficits and debt

Persistent deficits are adding to a rapidly growing national debt, and rising interest costs increasingly crowd out room for other priorities.

Efficiency and waste

A smaller government can mean less duplication and waste, and lets individuals and markets — rather than politicians — decide how more resources get used.

Burden on the future

Spending financed by borrowing today shifts the bill to future taxpayers, who didn't get a vote on it.

Historical context

Federal spending as a share of the economy has swung dramatically over the past 90 years — driven mostly by wars, recessions, and the growth of entitlement programs as the population ages.

9.2%
1935
9.8%
1940
World War II
41.9%
1945
15.6%
1950
Korean War
20.4%
1953
17.8%
1960
Vietnam War
20.5%
1968
21.3%
1975
23.5%
1983
21.2%
1990
17.6%
2000
20.2%
2008
2008 financial crisis
24.4%
2009
20.4%
2015
21%
2019
COVID-19
31.1%
2020
30.5%
2021
22.7%
2023
23.8%
2025

Federal outlays as % of GDP, selected years. Approximate historical estimates for illustration.

Spending spiked above 40% of GDP during World War II, then fell sharply as the wartime economy demobilized. It crept upward over the following decades — through the Korean and Vietnam wars and the growth of Social Security and Medicare — before easing to a modern low around 2000, when a strong economy and budget surpluses reduced relative spending. Two more recent shocks — the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic — each triggered a temporary but sharp spike, as emergency stimulus and safety-net spending expanded faster than the economy did.

International context

Considered opinion

NextDefense or WarRed Ink — Deficit & DebtInequalityCapital Gains Tax

Wonkery

Federal spending figures are outlays (money actually paid out) from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); the long-run history uses the White House Office of Management and Budget's historical tables. International comparisons use the International Monetary Fund's figures for total government spending — national, state and local combined — so they are higher than US federal spending alone. Percent-of-GDP figures use fiscal-year GDP.

Sources

CBO, 2025Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
CBO, 2025Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2025: An Infographic
OMB, 2025Office of Management and Budget
Historical Tables, Budget of the U.S. Government — Table 1.2: Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits as Percentages of GDP
IMF, 2025International Monetary Fund
World Economic Outlook Database — General Government Total Expenditure (% of GDP)