Data and models

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Note: In this early demo release of Rebalance, some calculations are quite rough or illustrative. The immediate goal is to give you a quick sense of what it can do. We will check the numbers more carefully and refine the models over time. We believe that it's critical that the numbers are as credible and transparent as possible.

About the inequality figures

Rebalance's main inequality indicator, the Income gapThe Income gap is the ratio of the average income per adult of the richest 10% of Americans to the average income per adult of the bottom half (bottom 50%). It counts income after all taxes and government benefits — including cash benefits, tax credits, and health coverage such as Medicare and Medicaid. A value of 9× means the top 10% get nine times as much income per person as the bottom half. A smaller number means less inequality. (Measured per adult; source: World Inequality Database.), uses the World Inequality Database's estimates of income after taxes and benefits. How sure are these numbers? Measuring inequality takes assumptions — for example, how much income goes unreported, and how to divide the value of government services and health benefits among people. Our main source, the World Inequality Database (built by economists at the Paris School of Economics and UC Berkeley), finds a large rise in US inequality since 1980, even after taxes and benefits. Other researchers, notably Gerald Auten and David Splinter, economists at the Treasury and Congress's Joint Committee on Taxation, find a much smaller rise after taxes and benefits. The Congressional Budget Office's estimates fall in between, closer to the World Inequality Database. Most economists accept that inequality rose; the dispute is over how much. We will compare our policy estimates against the Congressional Budget Office's distribution tables as we refine the models.

Sources

Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income
Estate Tax Returns Filed in 2024, Table 1: Selected Income, Deduction and Tax Computation Items, by Tax Status and Size of Gross Estate
Congressional Budget Office
Understanding Federal Estate and Gift Taxes
Federal Reserve Board (Avery, Grodzicki & Moore)
Estate vs. Capital Gains Taxation: An Evaluation of Prospective Policies for Taxing Wealth at the Time of Death (FEDS 2013-28)
Pew Research Center
Americans see health care costs, the deficit and inflation as big problems facing the nation (May 11, 2026)
YouGov / The Economist
Majorities of Americans say wealth inequality is a problem and want government intervention (poll of January 2-5, 2026)
Internal Revenue Service
Revenue Procedure 2025-32: inflation adjustments for tax year 2026 (including capital gains rate thresholds)
Tax Policy Center
Historical Highest Marginal Income Tax Rates
Tax Policy Center
Historical Capital Gains and Taxes (maximum tax rates on long-term capital gains)
Tax Foundation
Capital Gains Tax Rates in Europe, 2026 (with US comparison: 20% federal + 3.8% NIIT + 4.9% average state = 28.7%)
PwC
Worldwide Tax Summaries: individual taxes on capital gains (Canada, Japan, Mexico)
US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Hearing on the Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report, February 26, 1997 (Alan Greenspan testimony)
Andrew W. Mellon
Taxation: The People's Business (Macmillan, 1924)
Warren E. Buffett, The New York Times
Stop Coddling the Super-Rich (op-ed, August 14, 2011)
Vinod Khosla, on X
Post proposing a capital gains tax equal to ordinary income (February 2026)
World Inequality Database (WID.world), via Our World in Data
Shares of pretax and post-tax national income held by the top 10% and bottom 50% (per adult, equal-split), 1913–2023, and latest year by country
Federal Reserve Board, Distributional Financial Accounts (via FRED)
Shares of household net worth held by the top 1%, 90th–99th percentiles, and bottom 50% (1989 Q3 and 2026 Q2)
US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (via FRED)
Median personal income, people aged 15 and over with income: $46,960 in 2025 (current dollars)
US Census Bureau
Income in the United States: 2025 (P60-289); median household income $87,460
Gerald Auten and David Splinter, Journal of Political Economy
Income Inequality in the United States: Using Tax Data to Measure Long-Term Trends (2024) — finds a much smaller rise in inequality after taxes and transfers than the World Inequality Database
Congressional Budget Office
The Distribution of Household Income, 2022 (January 2026)
The Budget Lab at Yale
Why Not: A 10% Surtax on Income Above $1 Million (May 2025)
Congressional Budget Office
Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2025 to 2034: Increase the Maximum Taxable Earnings That Are Subject to Social Security Payroll Taxes
Joint Committee on Taxation
Estimates of Federal Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years 2024–2028 (JCX-48-24)
Tax Foundation (from U.S. Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis data)
Federal Capital Gains Tax Collections: Historical Data
Congressional Budget Office
CBO's Projections of Realized Capital Gains
Pew Research Center
U.S. foreign aid is plunging in second Trump administration
Congressional Budget Office
Monthly Budget Review: September 2026 (October 8, 2026)
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
U.S. Ran a $2 Trillion Deficit Last Year, We Estimate (October 1, 2026)
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Fiscal Data
Debt to the Penny (total public debt outstanding: $40.047 trillion on August 18, 2026)
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025 (Fact Sheet, April 2026)
Office of Management and Budget
Historical Tables, Table 3.1: Outlays by Superfunction and Function, 1940–2013 (FY2009 Budget); later years from OMB and CBO
The White House, Office of Management and Budget
Fiscal Year 2027 Topline (fact sheet, April 2026)
Greenberg Traurig
Understanding the President’s FY 2027 Budget Request for the Department of War (May 2026)
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Tracking FY 2027 Defense Appropriations, Reconciliation, and the Supplemental Request (August 2026)
Defense One
Trump signs order to change name of Department of Defense to Department of War (September 2025)
U.S. Department of Energy
FY 2026 Congressional Justification, Volume 1: National Nuclear Security Administration
Military Times
House passes $435 billion spending plan for VA in fiscal 2026 (June 2025)
Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
Address to the Nation on Defense and National Security, March 23, 1983
Wikipedia (text of the speech is linked there)
“The Chance for Peace,” address to the American Society of Newspaper Editors, April 16, 1953
Compilation of Presidential Documents (govinfo)
Remarks by President Trump, February 13, 2025
Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
Congressional Budget Office
The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2025: An Infographic
Office of Management and Budget
Historical Tables, Budget of the U.S. Government — Table 1.2: Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits as Percentages of GDP
International Monetary Fund
World Economic Outlook Database — General Government Total Expenditure (% of GDP)
OECD
Revenue Statistics 2025 — Table 3.1: Total tax revenue as % of GDP, 1965–2024 (all levels of government, including social security contributions)
OECD
Revenue Statistics in Asia and the Pacific 2026 — Tax levels and tax structure, 1990–2024 (China, 2024)
Eurostat
Tax revenue statistics: EU tax-to-GDP ratio (taxes and net social contributions) 40.4% in 2024
Saudi Ministry of Finance, via Argaam
Saudi revenues hit SAR 1.25T, expenditure at SAR 1.37T in 2024 — tax revenues of about SAR 380 billion, about 9% of GDP (Rebalance calculation)
Tax Policy Center
US Taxes Have Changed A Lot Since 1929
U.S. Census Bureau
Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970 — Government finances (state and local tax revenue), used with OMB federal receipts for the 1927–1960 estimates
International Monetary Fund
Fiscal Monitor — General Government Net Lending/Borrowing (% of GDP)